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August 04, 2011

第426話 フィリピン株?

 証券会社からフィリピン株投資のお誘いがきた。この会社ではブラジルレアルでは少々儲けさせてもらったが、フィリピン株となるとちょっと引いてしまう。

 指標で見る限りは新興国の中でも、停滞する中国やベトナムに比べて株価の推移がここ数年堅調で、インフレ懸念も少なく、安定成長が期待できそうなのだが、どうしても、国全体が今後飛躍的に発展する、というイメージに程遠いのだ。

 人口9000万人と言っても、実際に購買力があるのはどれだけいるだろうか。成長産業がコールセンターなどの根無し草のBPOビジネス、というのも何だかなあ…。輸出品に電子部品などの工業製品が増えてきているのは事実としても、これらは地場産業でなく、殆どが外国資本。すでにフィリピンに見切りをつけ撤退している企業も散見される。

 銀行などは比較的時価総額も大きく、信頼できそうにも見えるが、どうしても十数年前のPNBの印象がチラチラする。全体の所得が底上げされれば、不動産などは良さそうだが、所得が上がるということは、=外資が逃げ出す、ということに繋がる訳だから、これもどうかと。

 結局自前のこれといった産業がバナナ、パイナップルとエビしか見当たらない外資頼みの現状では、フィリピンの証券マーケットに手を出すのは、ちょっとリスクが大きいかな。gawk

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